Markets In Focus: The Week That Was and What’s On Tap
THE WEEK THAT WAS
That Was The S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.1%, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.8%. It was the first up week for the S&P in three. The Nasdaq printed a record close Tuesday. Small caps lagged as yields climbed.
AI was the equity engine. Meta’s Muse agent drove a large weekly move in the stock and pulled semiconductors with it. AMD crossed $1 trillion. Microsoft rallied into Friday after new Copilot capabilities. Akamai jumped on an $11.6 billion Anthropic cloud deal. Technology led the S&P; energy and utilities lagged.
The offset was the bond market. The 10-year yield tagged its highest level since 2007 and the 30-year its highest since 2004 before easing late in the week. Hot September flash PMIs were the catalyst: the U.S. composite printed a fiveyear high near 58.4, with input prices at their strongest since late 2022. That lifted October hike odds after last week’s 25 bp move. August durable goods were flat; core durables +0.3%. Final Michigan sentiment ticked up to 48.1.
Oil and Iran kept a bid on inflation risk. Midweek, Iranian remarks at the U.N. and a Houthi strike on Saudi infrastructure sent Brent back toward $107. Later reports that Washington and Tehran were exploring a phased Hormuz reopening, and an Iranian offer to restore traffic within seven days if military pressure eases, cut crude and yields on Friday and broadened the equity bounce.
The Trump–Xi visit produced a two-month extension of the trade truce and little else. AutoZone’s mixed print was the main consumer-earnings data point. Equities held up because AI earnings expectations offset a valuation reset: the S&P traded near 19 times forward earnings, its cheapest since 2023, even as rate-sensitive and small-cap names paid the yield tax.
THE WEEK AHEAD
U.S. markets enter the week ending Oct. 2 facing a dense data calendar that will test the post-hike narrative, plus a handful of high-beta earnings and still-unsettled geopolitics.
Tuesday brings July Case-Shiller and FHFA home-price indexes, September Conference Board consumer confidence, and August JOLTS openings, a cluster that will speak to housing resilience and labor demand after last week’s durable-goods print. Wednesday is heavier: ADP private payrolls for September, August personal income and spending, the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauges, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Thursday adds weekly jobless claims and the September ISM manufacturing PMI (August printed 54.6). Friday’s September employment report is the week’s anchor: payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings will dominate rate-path pricing into the Oct. 27–28 FOMC.
Corporate news is thin but concentrated. Micron reports fiscal Q4 after Wednesday’s close, with consensus near 50–51billioninrevenueand~31 EPS as AI-driven DRAM/HBM tightness and price gains remain the story. Carnival and CarMax report Tuesday; Jabil, Conagra, and FactSet Wednesday; Accenture and Nike Thursday. Guidance from memory and consumer names will matter more than the prints themselves.
Geopolitically, the Trump–Xi state visit that concluded this week produced only a two-month extension of the trade truce (into early January) and no breakthrough on Taiwan, rare earths, or tech controls—leaving tariff and supplychain risk on the table. Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, if talks resume, and continued Russia–Ukraine strikes on energy and grain infrastructure keep oil and risk premia in play. Several Fed officials speak midweek; none of it substitutes for Friday’s jobs number.
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The S&P 500 generally represents performance of 500 large companies listed on exchanges in the U. S. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weighted index that measures the performance of more than 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq Composite Market. The Russell 2,000 Index is a market-cap weighted index that measures the performance of approximately 2,000 of the smallest companies in the Russell 3,000 Index. The MSCI ACWI captures Large and Mid-Cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) and 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries. With 2,921 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. FactSet Research System is a financial data and software company that provides research for Wall Street professionals and individual investors.
